Estimation of the total cost of ownership (TCO) over 3 years for a Tesla Model Y (electric) vs a comparable fossil-fuel SUV (petrol) in the Stockholm area, driving 2000 mil per year. (“mil” in Swedish usage = 10 000 km, so 2000 mil = 20 000 km per year; over 3 years = 60 000 km.) I’ll include estimates for: purchase depreciation, electricity/fuel, insurance, maintenance, and taxes. Some assumptions will be needed; if you want, I can run with different ones.
Sensitivities & Caveats
- If petrol prices rise, the savings for Tesla increase. If electricity costs are high (especially public charging), that eats into the savings.
- If the Tesla purchase price is significantly higher (e.g. special trim or with expensive extras), depreciation cost might be larger.
- Insurance for EVs can be more expensive in some cases, especially for body damage, battery related risks etc. If insurance is significantly more for Tesla, advantage shrinks.
- Also battery degradation, charging infrastructure costs (home charger installation) can be additional.
- Value of subsidies or tax incentives may change.
Approx estimate of costs over 3 years (60 000 km)
Here’s a breakdown for each car.
| Cost category | Tesla Model Y | Fossil SUV |
|---|---|---|
| Depreciation | Suppose purchase at SEK 800,000. If after 3 years value drops 45%, resale ~ SEK 440,000 → depreciation ≈ SEK 360,000 | Purchase at 650,000; drop 50% value → resale ~ SEK 325,000 → depreciation ≈ SEK 325,000 |
| Energy / Fuel | Electric energy: 15.7 kWh/100 km × 60,000 km = 9,420 kWh. At SEK 1.8/kWh → SEK 16,956 | Petrol: 9.5 L/100 km × 60,000 km = 5,700 litres. At SEK 21/L → SEK 119,700 |
| Insurance | Assume ~ SEK 12,000/yr for full insurance etc → over 3 yrs ≈ SEK 36,000 | Maybe ~ SEK 10,000/yr → ≈ SEK 30,000 |
| Maintenance & repairs | EV: fewer moving parts, no oil changes, etc. But tires, brakes (less wear), battery warranty etc. Estimate ~ SEK 10,000-12,000/yr → over 3 yrs ≈ SEK 33,000 | Petrol: more service cost, engine maintenance etc. Estimate ~ SEK 15,000/yr → over 3 yrs ≈ SEK 45,000 |
| Taxes / Fees / Misc | Lower vehicle tax (might be exemptions), charging infrastructure, perhaps parking, winter wheels etc. Estimate ~ SEK 5,000-7,000/yr → ~ SEK 18,000 | Full vehicle taxes, more fuel related taxes, maybe higher fees. Estimate ~ SEK 7,000/yr → ~ SEK 21,000 |
Totals
Now summing up.
| Component | Tesla Model Y (3 yrs) | Fossil SUV (petrol) (3 yrs) |
|---|---|---|
| Depreciation | 360,000 | 325,000 |
| Energy / Fuel | 16,956 | 119,700 |
| Insurance | 36,000 | 30,000 |
| Maintenance & Repairs | 33,000 | 45,000 |
| Taxes & Misc | 18,000 | 21,000 |
| Estimated TCO over 3 years | ≈ SEK 464,000 | ≈ SEK 541,000 |
So in this scenario, owning a Tesla Model Y over 3 years and 60,000 km is about SEK 464,000, whereas a comparable petrol SUV would cost about SEK 541,000, i.e. the Tesla saves around SEK 75,000 over 3 years (≈ SEK 25,000 / year), mostly due to lower fuel/energy cost and somewhat lower maintenance.
Notice once more :
- If petrol prices rise, the savings for Tesla increase. If electricity costs are high (especially public charging), that eats into the savings.
- If the Tesla purchase price is significantly higher (e.g. special trim or with expensive extras), depreciation cost might be larger.
- Insurance for EVs can be more expensive in some cases, especially for body damage, battery related risks etc. If insurance is significantly more for Tesla, advantage shrinks.
- Also battery degradation, charging infrastructure costs (home charger installation) can be additional.
- Value of subsidies or tax incentives may change.